Somehow we have staggered through to October 2023. What a weird year. Apart from everyone appears to be getting older it is hard to say anything about 2023. A non year year. The competition is getting busy. Companies struggling to find the volumes in their home markets, like Benalu, Schmitz, Ozgul (Colson), Mega, STAS and a whole range of others are trying to find market in the UK. And fair dooze they are finding some sales. How good they are and how long they will persist when their own markets crank back up in 2024 is anyone's guess. Like some Zombie that will not die, or perhaps more like the Mummy Returns and then ....returns again, Fruehauf has come alive and is hitting the numbers. Fruehauf appears infinitely elastic in how far you can stretch a brand without it snapping. So like the Grand National the race is full of old names and new names. How many will make it around the course and how many will retire is simply unknowable.
Interest rates are complicating the discussions. Such a long time at low rates and then now a sudden spike has led to gold star customers being served rates from 8 to 9 per cent and silver and bronze into the early teens. That is a painful issue that cannot be easily addressed. Perhaps Q1 2024 will help easy the interest rates although a Labour government is not normally a great thing for our industry.
So now we are looking to 2024 there will be a big falling out of company names as they either find a market in the UK or retreat - take market share or leave the battlefield. Interest rates and basic need will dictate the total size of the market. Almost makes you want to skip a year and go straight to 2025.
Posted by Andrew on 09/10/2023
